Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes, 14 by Patrick Humphreys

By Patrick Humphreys

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P i + € , . . , p j - ~ , . . L. Keeney 32 between pi + f and pj- e . Note that all Ph, h # i, j are held fixed in the definition. This definition merely says that given all risks but t w o are fixed, the better balanced these two are, the more equitable the risk. A reasonable assumption might be that a more equitable distribution of risk is preferred t o a less equitable distribution. Observation 3. Given the basic model assumptions and a preference for a more equitable distribution of risk, the utility function for mortality risks must be the multiplicative form (5) where 0 > k > 1 .

Life and death decision analysis. 1n:Lawrence Symposium on Systems and Decision Sciences. North Hollywood, California: Western Periodicals. , 1974. The value of changes in the probability of death or injury. Journal of Political Economy, 99, 835-49. Keeney, R. Evaluating alternatives involving potential fatalities. Operations Research, 28, 188-205. Keeney, R. , 1980b. Equity and public risk. Operations Research, 28, 527-534. Keeney, R. , 1980c. Utility functions for equity and public risk. Management Science, 26, 345 -35 3.

Boulder, Colorado: Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado. , 1969. Social benefits versus technological risk. Science, 165, 1232-1238. von Neumann J . and 0. Morgenstern, 1947. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2nd ed. , 1975. Procedures for evaluating lives. Public Policy, 23, 419--464. THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN A POLITICAL DECISION PROCESS' John LATHROP and Joanne LINNEROOTH' International Institute f o r Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg.

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